In nature, there are interesting indicators of future events.  Animals behave oddly prior to a natural disaster, certain bugs in your garden can indicate a good harvest, red sky at night = sailor’s delight, and so forth.  After a decade in Costa Rica and six years in Panama, I have formed my own predictive theory: If you want to know where to invest in real estate, simply follow Canadians and surfers.

One could write books about the differences between Canadians and Americans, or to be more politically correct, United Statesians.  Because I am lazy and rarely known to be politically correct, I will henceforth refer to natives of the U.S. as “Americans”.  That in itself is not a very Canadian thing to do.  I grew up near the Canadian border in rural Pennsylvania, so I had a good bit of exposure to our polite brethren to the north. To most foreigners, the differences are so subtle that it difficult to distinguish the two nationalities.  One could dedicate several books to those differences, but what I’ve found particularly interesting is that American Gringos and Canadian Gringos congregate in very different places when living or retiring in Costa Rica and Panama.  Whereas Americans gravitate to gated communities, modern conveniences and other expats, Canadians are more willing to avoid the crowds, live among locals and forego modern living…especially if it means lower prices.  Most real estate agents will tell you that Canadians on average, tend to be very thrifty shoppers, but I would argue that for investors looking for deals, if you find a handful of Canadians in what seems like an otherwise inconspicuous investment locale, it’s probably an area that’s about to become popular.  If you can get in at the right time, usually while it’s still a little raw and underpriced, you may see upside when the American crowd piles in and drives up prices. Where are the Canadians settling today in Panama?  They tend to find off the beaten track towns like Penonome (Cocle), Cerro Azul (east of Panama City) and Pocri (Los Santos). And in case any Canadians are reading — Shameless Plug Alert! – my friend has a house for sale near the beach in Pocri for under $90k!

Surfers are a unique breed.  There are not many sports that become lifestyles to the degree of surfing.  It’s a sport, a culture and a religion of sorts.  And in my opinion, like Candians, surfers are great indicators of future growth in a region.  Surfers will go anywhere, ANYWHERE that there is great surf.  They do not care how far it is, how awful the roads nor how limited the infrastructure. Just ask a car rental agency what type of customers they fear the most.  The answer will be as instant as it is unanimous: SURFERS.  Yes, these destroyers of rental vehicles are notorious for trekking over miles of unpaved roads in Toyota Yaris in search of big waves and zero crowds.  Like Canadians, the are not afraid to rough it, to be ahead of the curve or to sleep in a tent with only bananas for sustenance.

Great surf spots often become major tourist attractions years down the road, in great part because the dynamics of what make a beautiful, surf-able wave often make for beautiful, picturesque beaches.  Just think about these famous beach towns for a second:

Honolulu, Hawaii
Tamarindo, Costa Rica
Huntington Beach, California
Gold Coast, Australia
Bali, Indonesia

What do they all have in common?

a.    Surfers were there before you heard of them
b.    They were once cheap places to buy real estate
c.    Now they ain’t

Like Canadians, if you can get to a spot that surfers have discovered BEFORE the crowds of boring, non-surfing, sunburned tourists arrive, you may just able to snag a bargain.  In Panama, surfers are going to remote places like Playa Venao, Cambutal and Santa Catalina.

I’m not guaranteeing you’ll get rich with my formula, but more often than not, these two groups are able to spot the hidden potential of remote areas long before mom and pop start buying condos.  So keep your ears open for “ehs” and “bros” next time you’re in a remote bar in Panama.  You might just be sitting in the location of the next tourism or retirement hot spot.

My buddy Charlie is often quoted as saying, “Sorry for partyin’!”  You see, Charles has what I like to call a penchant for fiestas. When it comes to the PTY nightlife scene, Charlie is the 6 foot 4, redheaded equivalent of Elvis.  It’s hard to find a bartender who doesn’t know him by name.  So, when I went looking for a list of Top Bars in Panama City, I knew nobody was more qualified than Sir Charles.  Here’s his list:

Top 10 Bars in Panama, by ChArnold

• Platea – Good bar with live music in Casco Viejo. The prices can be a little high, but the service and atmosphere are top notch. Great mix of locals, ex pats, and tourists.
• Cayuco’s – Located right on a Marina, this bar is set outdoors, and it’s great for watching the yachts come in. The prices are very reasonable, and the food is great as well.
• Relic – Great bar for young people looking to meet other travelers. The fact that it’s located beneath Panama City’s biggest and most popular hostel definitely helps keep the bar packed with people that are passing through. It’s also becoming a hot spot for local Panamanians.
• Superbook – A very comfortable sports bar. It’s also a sportsbook for anyone that feels like putting some money down. Any sporting event you could imagine can be watched here.
• Pavo Real – A traditional American-feeling sports bar. It’s a small sports bar located on Via Argentina, and it definitely feels like something borrowed from the U.S. Two pool tables and big TVs make it a great spot to catch a game.
• Steinbach – This German bar is famous in Panama City for its authentic German beers. It’s also a restaurant and offers some really great dishes as well, but most people just come here for the beer.
• The Londoner – This is a great English pub located right on Calle Uruguay.
• Tequila Bar – A great place in Casco to have a few drinks and a bite to eat before you go out for the evening. The bar is owned by three young Venezuelans that are extremely nice. Make sure to grab a seat outside.
• Veneto Casino – Most people don’t come here for the bar, but it’s a fun atmosphere. It’s the only Las Vegas-style casino in the country, and you are sure to meet many other travelers.
• Zona Viva – This is not a bar, but an area with several different bars and clubs. It’s a great place for people that like the “club” atmosphere. Things don’t really pick up here until around 11 p.m.

So there you have it, Charlie’s A-list.  If you haven’t been to all of these places, well…you just haven’t lived.

Looking for somewhere great to eat while in Panama City, Panama?  I asked a few of my “foodie” friends if they’d provide me a list of their favorite culinary haunts in PTY.  Here’s the short list:

Athens – Greek/Pizza

A favorite amongst locals. Even though they advertise their pizza, the real winner on the menu is the Lodopsomo – think Greek nachos. Don’t forget to ask for a topping of peperoncini if you like it spicy!

Beirut – Lebanese/Mediterranean

Hands down some of the best service you will find in Panama. This place is great for groups, and on Saturdays they have live music and belly dancers. Try any of the combo platters (Beirut #51 is a good one) and don’t forget the after dinner hookah.

Ego – Peruvian/Italian

Located in Plaza Bolivar in Casco Viejo, Ego is located across from the popular (and overrated) Casablanca. Enjoy the same incredible scenery but with better quality food. My favorite dish is the chicken ravioli – think chicken potpie in ravioli…different but delicious.

Market – American Style Bistro

I can’t say enough good things about this place. Their food is excellent, the prices reasonable, great service and an excellent wine list. When I need a piece of home, I know nothing will do the trick better than Market’s Executive Burger.

La Posta – Fusion

La Posta’s reputation as one of the best restaurants in Panama is well deserved. With menu items as low as $11, this 5 star dining experience delivers on every level.

The highlight: Short Ribs with Parmesan Risotto – one of the more expensive menu items but worth every savory bite.

Los Años Locos –Steak House

A recent discovery for me off of Calle 50 (take the first right after the KFC before The Rey and it is on the right-hand side), this local steakhouse offers great prices, service and $1.50 beers. My filet came out to medium rare perfection and probably weighed in at 16 ounces. Combine the fillet with a side dish and a trip to the salad beer for $14 and you have a hell of a deal. Did I mention beers are $1.50?

Steinbock – German

This European Chalet might be better known for its impressive imported beer selection, but the food is also not to be missed. Highlight: the assortment of yummy sausages (particularly the pork with spices) and sauerkraut. When feeling adventurous, try the schnitzel as well!

La Vitrola – Steak and Seafood

For an up-scale dinner spot, you can’t get any better than this. With a great location in Costa del Este and live Cuban jazz music every night, the setting here is perfect. Their assortment of shrimp dishes are amazing and the wine list is exquisite–if you’re looking to impress, order the La Crema Pinot Noir.

Cayucos – Panamanian

Next time you are out enjoying the Causeway and find your stomach growling, skip all those flashy, overpriced, marginal restaurants that line the road and head to the very end toward the marina. Past Bennigans, right on the water overlooking the boats is a shack with tables and chairs called “Cayucos.” This local spot boast fantastic views, buckets of beer and whole fried fish.

La Mar – Peruvian

Brand new and located just behind the Power Club gym in El Cangrejo. Great ceviche here that goes very well with their excellent Pisco Sours—though be careful, these drinks will kick your butt. Interestingly enough, they have amazing desserts as well.

Escaping the maze that is Panama City via rental car is one of the biggest challenges facing a first time visitor to Panama.  Streets aren’t well marked, the path to the Bridge isn’t clear and there are plenty of one way streets, crazy drivers and other assorted obstacles that can ruin the start to your vacation.

For this exercise, we video taped the entire trip, starting at the Bristol Hotel just off Calle 50.  There are plenty of ways to get out of Panama City, but in this case we tried to show the route that we believe to be the easiest to follow.  Written instructions and a map are provided below, in addition to our 3 part video documentary. I suggest that anybody coming to Panama take a quick look at these clips to get a visual understanding of where you’re trying to go, as it can be very difficult to find your way in Panama City without some visual reference points.  If any readers with experience in Panama have suggestions on how I might improve the written instructions, feel free to opine.  I hope this helps a lot of folks avoid getting lost in Chorillo (a common mistake I’ve made myself!).

INTRO: Greetings from Panama!

PART I: Getting to Balboa Avenue and the Cinta Costera

PART II: Balboa Ave to the Martyres Exit

PART III: Crossing the Bridge

Leaving Panama City via Bridge of the Americas:

1. Get to Balboa Avenue (Cinta Costera) and turn RIGHT (ocean on your LEFT)

You will pass:
- Hotel Le Meridian on RIGHT
- Intercontinental Hotel on LEFT
- Pacific Ocean will be on your LEFT
- Lots of new buildings in construction on RIGHT

2. Merge into the farthest Left set of lanes

You will pass:
- Statue of Balboa the explorer on LEFT
- Fewer and fewer high rises as you approach exit

3. Look for LEFT Exit Sign that reads, “Ave Omar Torrijos / Los Martires”

4. Take ramp up and turning Right over highway
- See Ancon Hill
- Confort Hotel Sign

5. Follow signs, stay LEFT to “Ave Los Martires” NOT Omar Torrijos on RT!
- Follow Curve Left
- See Martyrs statue on Left (kids raising flag)
- Ancon Hill on RT

6. Continue straight approaching The Bridge
You will pass:
- Scary looking neighborhood (Chorillo) on LEFT
- Esso Gas station on LEFT

7. Stay in Left Lane
- follow sign to Chorrera (NOT RIGHT hand lane, leading up Amador)
- see The Bridge in distance
- start heading uphill to The Bridge
- signs read to PanAmerican Highway!

Our Path, as marked on a Google Map.

View Panama Vacations in a larger map

There may be a global financial crisis going on, but if Panama’s real estate asking prices are any indicator, that memo never made it to Panama.

During the Panama real estate boom of 2005-2007, crowds of investors were playing fast and loose with money like a sailor on shore leave.  Real estate prices rose impossibly fast, even the most remote parts of Panama.  The speculators were coming from everywhere; big biz Panamanians, law firms, hedge funds, foreign developers. Even a few celebrities got into the gold rush.  There were times when, on any given weekend on the Pacific beaches near Panama City, one could count half a dozen helicopters thwapping by, presumably transporting high-dollar prospectors able to afford an eagle´s view.

That brings us to the stark reality of 2010.  Panama´s real estate market is still waking up to a hangover caused by some regrettable decisions made during the over confidence of the go-go years.  Prospective buyers are still coming to Panama, but are stunned by the high asking prices, particularly when compared to the post-bubble prices of retirement spots in South Florida.  It seems that sellers in Panama are still clinging on to the inflated prices of the glory days.  As a result, Panama´s real estate market is stuck, much like a mule halfway across a river…afraid to forge ahead, but too stubborn to go back.

The majority of inquiries I receive for Panama real estate are seeking low prices.  To those searching for a beach bungalow with ocean views for under $150k, I regret to inform you that your chances of encountering that in Panama are about the same as finding El Dorado.   Why not?  Well, the short answer is that the real estate market here just hasn’t mature enough yet in order for the bubble to have burst.  Supply for any finished construction near beaches is very limited, as are beach projects with small lots sub-divided.

But don’t lose heart just yet!  I do believe there are some exceptional values in Panama real estate. But this assumes you have realistic expectations, plenty of patience and also know where and how to search.  For those willing to seek out properties off the beaten path, here are a 5 areas where I think you may still be able to find deals.

WARNING: don´t expect country club living or a nearby Starbucks in these areas just yet.

BEACHES

1. Pixvae, Veraguas
Located on the Pacific Coast in the province of Veraguas, this remote beach town is prime for long-term growth. With green rolling hills, Isla Coiba and a half dozen other small islands nearby, this area is certain to become a tourist attraction soon.  At around 6 hours driving from Panama City, access to this region is still a challenge.  Finding small parcels of affordable land near this or any beach in Panama can be difficult to impossible, but I like this area because there are so many hills with nice views within just a mile or two of the coast.  Roads to these properties may be non-existent today, but this is where I’d suggest exploring for deals.

With Isla Coiba nearby,  which is a UNESCO World Heritage site and quite possibly Panama’s greatest potential tourist attraction, I would wager that the access to this region improves before the end of President Ricardo Martinelli’s administration.  If you are looking for a long-term investment, this whole coast is a must-see.

2. Pocri, Los Santos

Pocri is on the Azuero Peninsula, about 4 hours from Panama City on excellent roads. I refer to this town as a ¨Poor Man´s Pedasi¨, in reference to this beach side town´s more popular neighbor to the South, where my family and I operate a B&B.  Located about 15 minutes South of Las Tablas and 15 north of Pedasi, Pocri has the convenience of being near enough to civilization, touristy beaches and shopping, yet without crazy asking prices or tons of expats. The town itself is very charming and just seconds from a very good highway. The nearby beach is a 5 minute drive from downtown Pocri and is quite nice. The fishing is fantastic and the very lovely Isla Iguana National Park is just offshore.  I’m frankly surprised that this town hasn’t taken off yet.

Pocri has charming houses as in Pedasi, but at far lower prices

This town offers a nice balance between the calm and quiet of country living near the ocean, without feeling isolated. With lots of tourists already going to Pedasi and Venao, Pocri won’t stay a secret forever. For now, it’s hard to find any gringos around the area, and so prices for houses have remained within reason. I have a friend selling a small house in Pocri on a large lot for under $100k.

3. Torio, Veraguas
The Western coast of the Azuero Peninsula bears little resemblance to the Eastern side.  This area is far more green, has thankfully been deforested far less and has a more severe landscape. In many ways it reminds one of Hawaii, with emerald ridges plunging down to the sea.  Playa Torio is one of several beach villages on this side of the peninsula with stunning westerly views, long, lovely beaches and fantastic sunsets. Isla Gobernadora feels so close you could touch it and fishing is also quite good.

views from Torio to Isla Gobernadora are stunning

Access to this side of the Azuero from the Eastern side of the peninsula is still limited, but several roads are planned which should change that in the future.  In the meantime, this area has the long, pristine beaches that are becoming increasingly difficult to find in Panama…or anywhere else. This region has so many steep hills near the beach, intrepid investsors have a good shot of finding an ocean view at a reasonable price.

MOUNTAINS

4. Santa Fe, Veraguas
Located just over an hour North from Santigo, Panama’s 4th largest City, Santa Fe’s cool climate has begun to attract expats to the area. It borders the Santa Fe National Park, an area known for orchids, green hilltops and waterfalls. Some are calling it “the Boquete of the future”, referring to the popular retirement spot in the hills of Chiriqui.  The interesting thing about Santa Fe is that it may someday be well connected to Caribbean beaches of Calovebora via a country road that heads over the mountains and down to the coast.  The road needs some major work, but has been a hot topic in recent years. I personally have not been to the beaches of Calovebora, but they look fantastic in photos.

5. Penonome, Cocle
Penonome, which is just over 2 hours from Panama City, is already popular with thrifty expats seeking slightly cooler climes.  For deals, I like the small towns like La Pintada which head up the mountain toward the relatively unexplored Omar Torrijos National Park. This area has many of the charms of Santa Fe and is still fairly close to the highway. My gut says that eventually Panama will have a proper regional airport somewhere around Penonome or Aguadulce that would super-connect this central region with Panama City and David.

SUMMARY

I hope this article provides hope to those seeking their dream property on a limited budget.  If you are willing to be patient, kick plenty of tires and make some sacrifices to save a buck, I DO believe Panama still has some low price options out there.

The Panama Tourism Authority and Aeroperlas held a joint press conference this past Friday to inaugurate the flights to Pedasi.  ATP head Salome Shamah was in attendance, along with Pedasi area investors and Aeroperlas executives.  Rolando Pereira of Aeroperlas Airline gave a short presentation about the history of the airline and his belief in and reasons for supporting the Pedasi route.  He was followed by Mr. Shamah, who spoke of the importance for the public and private sector to work in conjunction to advance the connectivity of the country and foster tourism in remote parts of Panama.

Mr. Shamah ended the speech with a passionate plea to the private sector to not squander the natural resources of the Azuero Peninsula, such as Isla Iguana National Park.  Nereida Moscoso, owner of Hostal Doña Maria in Pedasi spoke on behalf of Pedasi area business owners about Pedasi as a destination.  A folkloric music and dance group, complete with Panama’s famous “polleras” gave a performance as the audience moved to the Aeroperlas hangar to see the specific plane that is going to be used for the charter.  Later that day, the locals in Pedasi held a celebration at the airport with music, flowers and fanfare as the inaugural flight of passengers landed.

A folkloric group, Shamah, and the team that helped support the flight

The flight was an initiative that began with Pedasi area investors. The group made a proposal to the ATP and Aeroperlas. Both agreed to assist with a subsidized flight to the area. The ATP offered matching funds for promotion of the flight and Aeroperlas agreed to run the flight on an experimental basis, pending a percentage of the tickets were pre-purchased by Pedasi businesses. Adolfo Linares and the Panama Chamber of Commerce also played a role in acting as the proxy on the agreement while the Pedasi Chamber of Commerce remains pending formalization.

Flights depart Fridays and Mondays from the Albrook Airport in Panama City.

12:31pm — Departs Albrook
1:26pm — Arrives Pedasi

1:41pm — Departs Pedasi
2:36pm — Arrives Albrook

COST:
Approximately $155 round trip, depending on gas tax

Among those businesses who have helped sponsor the flight:

Pedasi Fishing
Casita Margarita
Azuero Villas
Villa Esplenderosa
Villa Camilla
Costa Pedasi
Tedd Tennis, an area real estate agent
Kirk Johnston of Cafe Limon

The flight can be booked online at www.Aeroperlas.com. Be sure to remember that the flight runs only on Fridays and Mondays when searching dates.

Today I had a very positive meeting with Salome Shamah, Panama’s new Minister of Tourism (ATP).  Also in attendance were Adolfo Linares (head of Panama Chamber of Commerce), Rolando Pereira (Aeroperlas) and Jose Goldner (Pedasi area investor).  The subject of the sit-down was to discuss the need for a subsidized flight route to Pedasi.  So far, we’ve had a tough time garnering unconditional support from Azuero area investors to help back the effort.

The Azuero Investors group have in hand a deal that would see them sharing the financial losses with Aeroperlas of a 12-seat, Friday/Monday flight to Pedasi for a trial period of six months.  The flights are scheduled to begin in February and can be purchased now online at www.aeroperlas.com.  Going into the meeting, it was our hope to make the deal for Azuero investors a no-brainer via some guaranteed financial and/or marketing support from the Panama Tourism Authority.

I was pleasantly surprised at Mr. Shama’s openness to assist Pedasi during the meeting.  After a significant amount of back and forth between the various parties, the ATP agreed not only to provide promotion for the flight, but also to assist with a portion of the subsidy required to get the route off the ground.   We left the meeting with a tentative deal and some respective to-do items to complete.  I was shocked!

It is my hope as a travel agent and hotelier in Panama that this may be the beginning of something far bigger than Pedasi alone.  Panama has a network of airstrips throughout the country that are not being utlized.  Take a look at these flight maps of neighboring Colombia and Costa Rica.  It is my firm belief that for Panama to truly compete as a top-tier vacation destination, the powers that be need to connect its central provinces with rest of the country.  Some of Panama’s finest tourism raw materials are located in the mountains of Cocle, East and Western Azuero and the Pacific beaches of Veraguas.  Currently, it is so difficult to access these regions that very few tourists are lucky enough to wander there.

Colombia Flights

Colombia has a very thorough domestic flight network

Costa Rica Flights

Costa Rica has an impressive number of domestic routes to remote tourism destinations

Panama Flights Today

Panama’s current domestic routes ignore the entire center of the country

Panama Domestic Flights, Year 2012?

If Panama could connect the country’s “heartland” via an expanded network of domestic routes, it would open up exciting new destinations for travelers, business people and residents

Adolfo Linares of the Panama Chamber of Commerce (and law firm Tapia, Linares & Alfaro) was also been very helpful in offering support to promote the region through the Chamber and also assist the budding Pedasi Chamber in getting organized.  I’d like to thank both Adolfo and Salome for being instrumental in getting this project moving, as well as Rolando Pereiria of Aeroperlas for his patience throughout this process.

Now its up to the Azuero Investors to raise the capital to launch the flight and ensure that prospective visitors know that it’s available. This could be the tipping point for the Eastern Azuero’s tourism growth and moreover, a pilot program that can be mirrored throughout Panama. If all goes to plan, I believe that this effort can serve as a demonstration of private and public enterprise working together, as well as foreign and local business community organizing for the common good.

—-

Salome Shamah photo borrowed from Panama-Guide.com

I asked a few friends and fellow bloggers for their predictions for Panama in 2010.   Here’s a compilation of their opinions, which are as varied and colorful as my uncle Doc’s 8 kids.

Sam Taliferro, Real Estate Developer & Blogger
PrimaPanama

I foresee relatively strong employment, political stability and higher International profile.  I see light at the end of the tunnel regarding the state of corruption in Panama. Recent legal actions against past administration will send a clear message to all levels of current and future government officials. Canal traffic will continue to slow due to the world economy placing additional risk and higher costs to Panama borrowings to pay for the expansion.

Panama will see significantly higher costs of goods and services due to recent minimum wage increases and inflation of the U.S. dollar. Hotel occupancy levels will continue to deteriorate in the city as more product come on line and the world economy continues to slow.

The U.S. government will continue to apply pressure to Panama regarding the FTA agreement by demanding more bank transparency. Panama will be forced to compromise, but will maintain a strong IBC structure through their S.A. (Society Anonymous).  Multinationals companies will still look to expand into Latin America and Panama will lead the way due to infrastructure and location.

Apartment prices will continue to experience downward pressure as more product comes on line. Many speculators will walk as long term credit is not available for high price per square meter apartments. Bottom feeders will have a field day.

Most of the residential communities marketing to foreign nationals will see continued slow sales due to the housing bubble bust in the first world along with the poor economy. Only those with no bank burdens will survive. Project success in this climate will depend on creative marketing.

Although Panama tourism in general will slow due to the deteriorating world economy, Chiriqui province will see increased visitors (real tourism) due to new flights making the connection from Tocumen International to David. Nowhere to go but up!

Evan Forbes, Blogger
EyeonPanama.com

Socially:

Casco Viejo overtakes Calle Uruguay as Panama’s best nightlife district.  Calle Uruguay is overpriced and tough to get laid, for free that is.  Everyone wants to pretend like they are in Miami, and it is getting old.  Prive, Guru, and Gallery are always dead.  Casco Viejo on the other hand, is gaining steam with places like Relic, Mojitos and Havana Panama Salsa Bar (bad-ass by the way).  If you throw in a solid electronic venue you’re set.

The smart phone “App” craze hits Panama.  Digicel has made Blackberry’s ubiquitous in Panama.  Not just in Multi-plaza, but Albrook Mall. Expect smart phones to BOOM in 2010, just wait until Panamanians get their hands on the affordable IPhone plan.

Economically:

Rental Marketing continuing to soften – Casey, you predicted this in your 2008 article, but rental prices will continue to soften.  It will take some time to reach the rental market equilibrium due to zero property taxes on new construction, dirty money in the property market, and no creditable statistics to balance the market. But expect to see those $1,100 apartments I showed you to rent be listed for $850 by the end of 2010.

The rise of Panama’s middle class — Wages have gone up considerable over the last couple of years.  My canopy tour operator friend in Colon says there has been a noticeable increase from people living in Panama (locals, other Latinos, and Westerners).  In addition, Doug, a guy who lives in Pedasi, says he rents his beach house out to Panamanian young surfers guys.   2010 will see the continued rise of Panama’s emerging middle class and the tourism is starting to notice.

Politically:

Public Transportation –  Martinelli is making the improvement of Panama City public transportation a central issue to his presidency.  He has already create more one way streets and traffic lights.  This should make a minor impact.  However, 2010 will see new and improve public buses and the start of the Metro line.   Prediction:  traffic will be just as bad in 2010, but the foundation for an mass transit overhaul is being laid.

Rise of Protectionism — Panama has more and more companies moving to the Isthmus.  However, these multi-nationals are hiring cleaning ladies and security guards to meet their local hiring quota.   Expect 2010 to see a rise in nationalistic protectionism because the economic prosperity will not be tangibly felt by many locals.

Matt Landau, Blogger & Small Hotelier
The Panama Report

Distinctions between legit and illegit real estate projects will become evident. The majority of the country’s projects will either come to fruition or fade into oblivion and those that do materialize will see their true construction quality exposed in 2010.  One building in Panama City will falter structurally in 2010 and result in major catastrophe leading to a complete retrospection of safety and construction codes. This will be bad for investment progress and drive prices down further than they are already set to fall in 2010.  Of all neighborhoods in the capital, Punta Paitilla will be see the biggest drop in price/m2 and Casco Viejo will remain the most stable.

Ricardo Martinelli will continue on the warpath eradicating corruption and the amount of public figures exposed in 2010 will be stifling. His team (most particularly the tourism institute and commerce ministry) will enlist the insight of in-country expatriates in an effort to make Panama a more attractive place to foreigners. While both crime and unemployment will go up in 2010, the income gap will go slightly down, which is to say, the rich will stay rich while the poor becomes slightly less poor. That and Bosco Vallerino will not finish out his term as Panama mayor.

Panama’s soccer starlet Nelson Barahona – recently transferred to Medellin, Colombia – will have a breakout season and receive an offer from a second-tier team in Europe, becoming the country’s best futbol export since Jorge Dely Valdés. 2010’s rainy season will be unusually dry and Tiger Woods will invest in a large chunk of coastal land in the Azuero Peninsula.

Panama will experience a new (albeit small) natural disaster in 2010 – such as earthquake, hurricane, or tsunami – prior thought to be impossible. The effects won’t be drastic but it will change people’s perceptions about the country as a safe haven from Mother Nature. Panama’s new anti-drug naval air stations will prove immensely successful and the amount of drugs seized in 2010 will nearly double the (already insane) number detained in 2009. Panama will continue positive growth and the city of Colon will experience some kind of revolutionary event in 2010 that forces the government to give it some serious tender love and affection. Shopping and gambling will become two of the newest, most stable industries and of all name brands, Panama’s Trump Tower will prove itself the nicest completed project in the country.

Rob Riviera, Blogger
RobRiviera.com

I’ve been asked to make a prediction on what twenty-ten will bring for Panama and its interests. To tell you the truth, I’m not quite sure what will happen, but I can tell you what might happen: President Martinelli will continue to be the (space) cowboy he’s proved to be, and eventually will piss off someone with as much power as he. I will watch the fireworks from the sidelines of my LCD TV which costs half now than when I bought it a year ago (the thought still stings). The local news will become my new favorite TV show, since “Lost” is almost over and I’m a sucker for reality TV.  We will see more and more foreigners checking out the country and (Mc)lovin’ it, while Casco continues its metamorphosis into a beautiful touristy butterfly, pooping out the “evil vermin” and relocating them in the process, smelly cocoon and all. I know this because the kind ghetto lady who cooks plantains in the corner of Plaza Herrera told me so.

I won’t be able to recognize Bocas del Toro because it’ll look like an episode of “Wild On” with gringos who can’t dance included, and Pedasi will be in 2010 what Bocas was back in 2004: newly-discovered and at the peak of its underground status before it starts morphing too (mind you, I did not say “go to hell” because I like what’s happening there. Shout-out to Casita Margarita!). Come to think of it, all of the touristy areas in Panama (Bocas, Casco, Boquete, Pedasi, Colon) will or already are morphing. The Mighty Morphin’ Panarangers. Watch out for the Cholozord!

I can’t predict this, but I want to think that things will continue to get better. I hope people continue to be open to the possibility of having open minds. Things are different now than they were four years ago and that, dear reader, is progress I can get behind on and make sweet lovin’ to. Just when I start losing faith in my fellow Panamanians something happens that recharges my nationality battery and I predict I will keep feeling like the fight is worth it.

Oh, and Bosco gets the boot in 12 months or less unless he stops a terrorist attack, Jack Bauer style. In which case, better for me and my reality TV.

Carlos Berguido, Attorney
KBK Law Firm

I think Panama’s economy should benefit from a moderate expansion due mostly to the canal expansion and other public works. Tourism will also keep on being a very important factor, though I doubt we will see any significant growth there. Port activity will remain so, while the airport will continue to grow. Banking will definitely get more conservative, as was last year’s case, but in general, I agree the economy should grow.

Politically, I see some turbulence ahead, as the new government has proven very capable at creating enemies, and fronts. They seem to be acting in haste, and as a result, they are making many mistakes that will (or should) be capitalized by a smart opposition. The government’s popularity stands to drop, and it seems they are very keen on fixing that front with populist measures that will have a cost, both economic and socially, when those measures are withdrawn, as fiscal situation deteriorates after the spectacular improvement brought on by the real estate and investment boom.

Okke Ornstein, Blogger & Journalist
The Isthmian

Rising Crime and Violence

There’s no comprehensive policy or strategy to fight crime or its causes and the police efforts are a total joke (checkpoints, “war on drugs” and other such nonsense). Government takes populist approach of mano dura, which is counterproductive. Look for gangs to professionalize, i.e. learn from their counterparts in El Salvador and Guatemala or even Brazil, and stay ahead of the police. As crime offers bigger rewards, police will cross over, like in Mexico. Turf wars between rivaling gangs and cartels, and Panama as the back office of black globalization. This process is already ongoing.

New Leftist Party

With the PRD in shambles and with it its fake progressiveness, there’s ample space on the left to start a new political group, and I think FRENADESO will do that this year. If member organization SUNTRACS throws its weight behind it, it will quickly have enough members to become a viable political force. There’ll be lots of infighting though, because the Panamanian left is disorganized, some groups may not want to include the “leftists” coming from a dysfunctional PRD, and unlike in Venezuela and Bolivia for example, there has been little ideological development in Panama (SUNTRACS only a few years ago featured Lenin and Comandante Castro prominently on its website). This thing should be fun to watch, if only for the rabiblancos shitting their pants.

Economic Mayhem

Forget all the hype about 5% economic growth and investment grade and other such crap dished out by Capital Financiero and the Latin American Business Chronicle. They said the same about Peru and of course it didn’t happen. The screwed up bond issue of last month is a sign of what’s coming in Panama; Martinelli promised a myriad of very expensive infrastructure projects while the state is mired in debt, can’t raise more money and isn’t even able to provide acceptable levels of public service (migración, judicial system, road maintenance, seguro social, etc.). Increasing taxes and fees and such will help a bit but not enough. Good luck with the MetroBus and the extension of the Cinta Coimera and the cleaning of the bay and the highway along the Atlantic coast and the Canal expansion and other such grandiose schemes that will, as the hype has it, solve all our problems once and for all.

The common denominator in all the above is Lack Of Vision. Like Matt wrote in a recent piece about tourism, it’s a little bit of everything resulting in mediocrity, but this goes for almost every sector of society all the way up to our President99 who doesn’t get much further than “we’re open for business”. Duh. This won’t change in 2010, no matter how much we write about it, because ruling elites (be they dictatorships or oligarchies) do not tolerate real talent near them that might threaten their rule, and SuperMartinelli is no exception.

Consequently, if there is any economic progress (or any other progress for that matter) to report it will come from global trends that Martinelli & Co have no control over, such as corporations from the north offshoring operations to jurisdictions where it’s more economical for them to operate. Some of that will come to Panama, despite our government’s inability to make up its mind if we should compete on quality workforce, infrastructure, cheap labor, easy immigration etc. (true to form, they’ll try to have a little bit of everything and end up with nothing, or, as the Russians say, “chase two rabbits and catch none”. The BIG challenge of 2010 will be for individuals and small businesses to hedge against economic downturn and government bungling/reduced legitimacy of the State.

On a more positive note, I also predict that after the majestic failure of the “Biggest Christmas Party of the World”, Bosco the Clown will launch a new initiative to create the “Biggest Easter Bunny of the World” on the Cinta Coimera and, during the live televised inauguration ceremony, will be hit by one of the parachuted giant easter eggs when that shute, made by his family company under a highly controversial contract, failed to open. There was nothing they could do any more at the Santo Tomas Hospital when he arrived there.

A small group of area investors and business owners in the sleepy beach town of Pedasi have banded together to help foster tourism growth in the region.  The group is attempting to raise funds through the local Chamber of Commerce to help subsidize a limited flight route through regional airline Aeroperlas.  Under the proposed plan, the flight would run Fridays and Mondays for a test period of six months. and the Pedasi investment community would be required to absorb part of the cost of unsold seats.

Located on Southeast tip of the Azuero Peninsula, this remote region is the center of Panama’s folklore and tradition. Known for many festivals, including the famous Carnavales celebrations and the picturesque traditional formal women’s dress La Pollera.  Pedasi is a quaint seaside village with charming Spanish Colonial architecture.  Attractions include great weather, unexplored Pacific beaches and Isla Iguana National Park.  This island is just 15 minutes offshore and offers white sand beaches, turquoise waters and excellent snorkeling.  The region is known for world-class tuna fishing, scuba diving and great surfing in nearby Playa Venao.   There are a handful of small Pedasi hotels and B&Bs in the area, but tourism is still still in its infancy.

According to Aeroperlas, the first flights may run as soon as early February and can be booked online at their website. If you are interested in contributing to the opening of the flight, email casey@costaricapages.com.

Even though Panama is riddled with beautiful beaches and rain forests, sometimes it just feels good to get out of the tropical climate without having to leave the country.  There are some mountain communities that provide this escape, but a place called La Yeguada really transfers you from Panama’s tropical climate and landscape to a setting that would more likely be found in the Colorado Rockies.  Centered around a small lake lined with pine trees and boulders, La Yeguada is the perfect low-key escape to whisk you to another place and climate without leaving the confines of the isthmus.

La Yeguada is part of a forest reserve that was created to protect the lake, La Laguna de La Yeguada, which has been used for hydroelectric energy for the past 40 years.  The pine forest, creating the forest reserve, was planted over 30 years ago, and these trees are really what transports you to an alpine setting.  The area has picturesque rivers and streams along with beautiful waterfalls.  The lake has wonderful swimming, and a 50-foot tower in the middle of the water serves as a great diving board for those adrenaline junkies out there.  The climate is dry, with pleasant days and cool nights.

ANAM currently maintains the reserve along with a lakefront campground.  The clearing for cars and tents is clean, good-sized and relatively flat, creating a great place for camping.  A basic latrine is on sight and there are plenty of places to have bonfires.  The ANAM station located close to the campground maintains the up-keep of the sight and is also a great source of information for exploring the surrounding area.

If you are camping on the weekend I would recommend arriving on Friday evening or early on Saturday.  We arrived late on Friday night and got a great spot considering there was only one other group present.  By Saturday afternoon, the SUVS rolled in and people were throwing tents anywhere they could find open ground.  Although it got a little chaotic, as long as you grab space on the edge of the camping sight, you can create your own space and can maintain some privacy.  Our group was fairly large and we got a great fire going at night with barbecued chorizo and plenty of wine.  The wind blowing through the aged pine trees combined with the moon’s reflection on the lake made for one picturesque night that was both unexpected and very welcomed.  As a lover of camping and the outdoors, La Yeguada is a special and unexpected place in the heart of an unusual Panamanian wilderness.

Located about 5 hours out of the city, La Yeguada is the perfect weekend destination with friends or family.  The only accommodations are what you bring, including water and toilet paper (for us ladies).  Don’t forget the s’more fixings and bring a sweatshirt for the nights.  Check out below for details and directions:

DETAILS AND DIRECTION:

How to get there:

• Head West on the Inter-American highway toward Aguadulce
• About 10 minutes after passing Aguadulce, look for a sign on the right hand side for El Jaguito.   Turn right here off the Inter-American Highway.
• From El Jaguito head to Calobre
• From Calobre head to La Yeguada (Calobre is the last small town before La Yeguada.)

La Yeguada is about 40 miles off the highway and can be a little hard to find.  The small pueblos along the way will be able to guide you in the right direction if you find yourself lost.

Camping Fees:

2$ for each adult

2$ per car

5$ per night per group

ANAM will come to collect the fees from the group after your arrival.