A Theoretic Look at Post-U.S. Election Costa Rica — Who Would You Choose?

With just over a month left before the U.S. presidential elections on November 4, both expats and Costa Ricans alike are in heavy speculation mode - how would each candidate affect those of us Living in Costa Rica?

Disclaimer: I’m not taking sides, just speculating on hypothetical outcomes for each candidate’s election. We invite you to chime in in the comments section below.

Option: McCain Wins

National and international media may heavily favor Obama (not you, Fox News), but conservative values are important to many, and there are plenty of Americans who will vote for the McCain/Palin ticket. Potential outcomes?

The Pros:

• Economic policy: McCain calls himself a fiscal conservative, and plans to reduce the American tax burden, especially for the wealthy (capital gains tax, for instance). Wealthy Americans with more disposable income would mean more investment in Costa Rica - second homes, lavish vacations, and retirement abroad. The Costa Rica Tourism industry thrives, money continues to flow into the country, boosting the economy.
• Wall Street: McCain favors a Wall Street bailout, and if approved, many bank giants could come roaring back to greatness. Stronger banks would revamp investments in Costa Rica like the several large hotel projects that were recently put on hold due to financial instability and insecurity, as well as future investments.
• CAFTA/TLC: Costa Rica approved the CAFTA referendum (though by a slim margin); McCain supports CAFTA. Under a McCain administration, Costa Ricans would see a U.S. eager to trade and outsource labor - a strong and positive addition to the local economy.

The Cons:

• Immigration: McCain has supported President Bush’s immigration reform legislation, including increased border security, strong law enforcement against illegal immigrants, and authorization to build the 700-mile long fence along the Mexico-U.S. border. To his credit, McCain has voted to help certain illegal immigrants gain citizenship and has also voiced interest in combating the illegal immigration problem offensively, by helping to improve quality of life in Latin America.
• World relations: McCain does not consider the U.S.’s world reputation as a high priority, preferring to act in the country’s immediate interest. McCain will likely be unwilling to lift sanctions against Cuba or enter diplomatic talks with Venezuela (he’ll be busy in the Middle East). This type of behavior won’t do much to help the U.S.’s reputation in Costa Rica.
• Iraq: Though the issue doesn’t directly affect Costa Ricans, McCain does not plan to withdraw American troops from Iraq until the U.S. has “won” the war. The majority of Costa Ricans do not agree with this decision.

Option 2: Obama Wins

America decides that they want to break away from the eight years of a Republican-run White House and opt for change. With the economy down, much of the middle class looks at the Obama/Biden ticket with hope for a better tomorrow and votes Obama. Potential outcomes?

The Pros:

• Economic policy: As president, Obama would like to increase taxes on the wealthy (defined at $200k+ annual income) and provide tax relief to the middle class. These reforms would allow more Americans to go on vacation, and since tourism is one of Costa Rica’s top industries and Americans are the industry’s top consumers, more American disposable income would help Costa Rica’s economy, as well. The middle class is more likely to invest in budget vacations in larger numbers, bringing more wear and tear to the Costa Rican infrastructure, while investing in smaller, mom and pop establishments rather than the luxury international chain hotels.
• Healthcare: Though the issue does not directly affect Costa Ricans, Obama plans to work toward a state healthcare system that looks much more like socialized medicine than the current system. Such policies may help restore the U.S.’s global reputation, especially in the eyes of socialist Latin America and Costa Rica. While this may mean a decrease in health related medical tourism, plastic surgery abroad would not lose any popularity.
• Diplomatic relations: Obama has expressed an interest in meeting with world leaders both friend a foe. This interest certainly extends to Venezuela and Cuba - Obama has already discussed his willingness to lift the trade embargo with Cuba as a negotiation tactic to free political prisoners, and to loosen rights for Cuban-Americans to visit their families.
• Iraq: Again, though the issue does not directly affect Costa Rica, Obama has opposed the use of military force in Iraq and plans to pull troops out as soon as possible.
• Latin America and the Caribbean: Obama believes that the Bush administration has neglected Latin America & the Caribbean, and plans to begin a new chapter in Latin American-U.S. foreign relations. He would like to promote democracy in Cuba and throughout Latin America, invest $50 billion to help relieve extreme poverty, and help increase regional security. Perhaps closest to Costa Ricans’ hearts, an Obama administration would work towards energy security, forming an Energy Partnership for the Americas, which would promote sustainable growth and clean energy, a goal in which Costa Rica has already expressed much interest.

The Cons:

• CAFTA: Obama has stated that he is against any trade agreement that doesn’t protect the environment or organized labor. Obama also wants to keep jobs local. Combined, these factors could lead to decreased outsourcing to Costa Rica and less trade - both factors could severely impact the Costa Rica economy.
• Immigration: Like McCain (and President Bush), Obama believes in strengthening U.S. borders and removing incentives to illegally immigrate. However, under an Obama administration, illegal immigrants who are in good standing would pay a fine, learn English, and begin the process to become a citizen. in addition, Obama plans to work with Mexico on immigration issues, and hopefully come to mutually-beneficial agreements.

Though Costa Ricans cannot vote in this year’s election, all eyes will certainly be on the United States come November 4th. Who will be elected? What will the new administration’s immediate impact be? And whose policies will be most sustainable and positive in Latin America and, specifically, Costa Rica?

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Filed under: Costa Rica News on October 1st, 2008